Racial and Ethnic Composition of the Child Population
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Headline

The percentage of children in the United States who are Hispanic more than doubled between 1980 and 2004, from 9 percent to 19 percent, and is projected to increase to nearly one-quarter (24 percent) of the child population by 2020. (See Figure 1)

Importance

The United States has a long history of ethnic and racial diversity in its population. That diversity has accelerated in recent decades, a trend which is expected to continue into the future.

Race and ethnicity are important for many reasons including their relation to culture, identity, and well-being. Children of different races and ethnicities often show large differences in areas of well-being including health, mortality, school performance and attainment, and access to family and community resources.¹ These and similar disparities are also evident in adulthood.²

According to a recent report from the National Research Council, race is determined both by physical traits (skin color, hair, and so on) and by the "individual, group, and social attributes" associated with those characteristics. It is distinguished from "ethnicity," which does not include physical characteristics as part of its definition.³

The federal government recently changed the way it defines and measures race. A key feature of the new definition allows respondents to identify themselves as more than one race. This new classification was used in the 2000 Decennial Census, and is being implemented in all Federal surveys and administrative data collection efforts.⁴

Trends

From 1980 to 2000, the percentage of non-Hispanic white children fell from 74 percent to 62 percent. (See Table 1) Between 2000 and 2004, the percentage of children who were non-Hispanic white only (following the new classification system used in the 2000 decennial census, in which respondents were categorized based on single race estimates) declined slightly from 61 percent to 59 percent, and is projected to decline to 53 percent by 2020. (See Figure 2)

The percentage of the child population that is Hispanic increased from 9 percent to 19 percent between 1980 and 2004, and is expected to increase further to 24 percent by 2020. (See Figure 1) Non-Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islander children increased from 2 to 4 percent of the child population between 1980 and 2001. (See Table 1) Asian only children made up 4 percent of the child population in 2004, and are expected to increase to 5 percent of the population by 2020. (See Figure 2)

The percentage of the child population that is non-Hispanic black has stayed relatively constant at about 15 percent since 1980, where it is expected to remain in 2020. Note, however, that race categorization has changed slightly, making estimates after 2000 not directly comparable to earlier estimates. (See Figure 2)

According to data from the 2000 Census, children of one race constituted roughly 96 percent of the child population. (See Table 2) Among children who identified with more than one race, the majority were white combined with one other race (3.1 percent), with .8 percent identifying as white and black, .6 percent identifying as white and Asian, and .5 percent as white and American Indian or Alaska Native. (See Table 2)

Related Indicators

Number of Children

State and Local Estimates

Estimates from the 2000 Census are available for the states, counties, congressional districts, metropolitan areas, and cities at http://www.aecf.org/kidscount/census/

State population projections of the child population for 1995-2025 (based on the 1990 census) are available by race and Hispanic origin at http://www.census.gov/population/projections/state/stpjage.txt

International Estimates

None

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National Goals

Not Applicable

What Works: Programs and Interventions that May Influence this Indicator

None available at this time.

Research References

¹Interagency Forum on Child and Family Statistics. 2002. America's Children: Key National Indicators of Well-Being. Available online at http://www.childstats.gov

²Blank, R. 2001. An Overview of Trends in Social and Economic Well-Being, by Race. Chapter 2 in America Becoming: Racial Trends and Their Consequences, Volume 1. Neil J. Smelser, William Julius Wilson, and Faith Mitchell, Editors. Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. Available online at
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/9599.html

³Smelser, N., Wilson, W., Mitchell, F. 2001. Introduction. In America Becoming: Racial Trends and Their Consequences, Volume 1. Neil J. Smelser, William Julius Wilson, and Faith Mitchell, Editors. Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. Available online at
http://www.nap.edu/catalog/9599.html

⁴Office of Management and Budget. 1997. Revisions to the Standards for the Classification of Federal Data on Race and Ethnicity. Available online at: http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/fedreg/ombdir15.html

Data Source

Data for 1980-1999 from America's Children: Key National Indicators of Well-Being, 2002, Tables POP1 and POP3. Federal Interagency Forum on Child and Family Statistics, Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
Tables POP 1 http://childstats.gov/ac2002/tbl.asp?id=1&iid=8 and POP 3 http://childstats.gov/ac2002/tbl.asp?id=1&iid=10

Data for 2000 and 2001 non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black, non-Hispanic Asian or Pacific Islander and non-Hispanic American Indian from original analysis by Child Trends of Bridged Race 2000 and 2001 Population Estimates for Calculating Vital Rates, National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 2003. http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/about/major/dvs/popbridge/popbridge.htm

All other data for 2000-2002 and data projections from America's Children in Brief: Key National Indicators of Well-Being, 2004, Tables POP1 and POP3. Federal Interagency Forum on Child and Family Statistics, Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. Tables POP 1 http://www.childstats.gov/ac2004/tables/pop1.asp and POP 3 http://www.childstats.gov/ac2004/tables/pop3.asp

Data for 2003 and 2004: Child Trends calculations of U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Population Estimates Program. "National estimates by demographic characteristics - single year of age, sex, race, and Hispanic Origin," Monthly Postcensal Resident Population, July 2003, July 2004. Available at http://www.census.gov/ popest/datasets.html

Data for Table 2 from unpublished estimates from the 2000 Census, produced by the Population Reference Bureau.

Raw Data Source

All estimates in Table 1 are from the Census Bureau's Population Projections and Estimates Branch, based on models that draw on many data sources.

Estimates for race and Hispanic subgroups that use data from the 2000 Decennial Census can be calculated (for 1990-2001) using the bridged race estimates available from the National Center for Health Statistics,
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/about/major/dvs/popbridge/popbridge.htm

Estimates based on the 1990 Census are available from the Census at
http://eire.census.gov/popest/estimates.php

All Estimates in Table 2 are from the 2000 Decennial Census.
http://www.census.gov/main/www/cen2000.html

Approximate Date of Next Update

Spring 2006

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